Progress has its own fans, namely those who drive it and benefit from it. So I think the Zeitgeist is not entirely against us. It is a better situation than it looks from the so-called “world of ideas” alone.
Tyler Cowen
Karma: 50
Walter Grinder was my very first mentor, I met him when I was 13 or 14 years old. He showed me what a life of reading could look like. But I’ve had many other mentors along the way, Thomas Schelling being one of the most famous of those, Derek Parfit too. Fischer Black.
I don’t have a good answer to the pregnancies question...
I think all states will be much better off in 50 years time. Maybe it is the Midwest that is currently underrated? Lots of great cultural roots there.
Currently it is the moment for Florida and Texas, but I wouldn’t say I have a very specific prediction for fifty years out, that is a long time away.
I observe more people migrating to the high-technology countries than away from them...poor countries are hardly safe and secure...
In fact I think computers are the main reason why the game is so much more popular. It gives almost everyone access to what is going on in the board—that was previously unavailable. and you know exactly how your favorite player is doing. Imagine if we had to watch NBA games without knowing the score! That was pre-computer chess for most observers.
Actual R&D involves so much interface with the real world, I fear that AIs will have a tough time there. So much of R&D is like “gardening.” AI will be a significant aide to us, but the humans will remain paramount in those endeavors. Important aides, but complements to us, not some means of replacing us. Thus it is hard to give a percentage.
The degree of federalism in the United States helps as well. I see more decisions and functions of government devolving to the states and even cities. That introduces more political competition into the American system.
Development has a lot to do with culture, and “culture” as a problem never will be solved. And new technologies change which features of a country are most important for development. Will “manufacture plus export” ever be so important again as it was for Japan and Korea? Doubtful, at least not anytime soon. Poland has been going a very different route. Expect something quite different again from the parts of Africa which succeed.
“Theory” in general is out of style these days. Insights of modernisation theory might end up being tested, but as a “theory” I don’t think it will make a comeback. Somehow there is too much academic hyperspecialization for that to happen, and it increasingly seems like the approach of a bygone era. And to be clear, I still have some sympathies for that bygone era, even if most of its hypotheses were wrong.
I think it suffices if they simply care about their profit. Ideally, VCs would speak up more for progress, but a lot of them are already pretty good on these issues. They are far from the problem. It is all the other interest groups that I worry about.
Agree, but of course it is easier to destroy than to create...
Build out your “small group” and also your mentors! Raises the likelihood of this then happening spontaneously.
The researcher also learns a great deal doing fieldwork that is not learned sitting at the PC, or whatever. That makes field work all the more underrated.
Possible answer: The returns to high verbal intelligence will not necessarily fall if AI gains the writing abilities of the median NYT opinion writer, but they will become more heterogeneous and dependent on the context and purpose of writing. AI may be able to generate coherent, grammatical, and persuasive prose on a variety of topics, but it may not be able to capture the nuances, subtleties, and originality of human expression, nor the emotional, ethical, and aesthetic dimensions of writing. Moreover, AI may not be able to adapt to changing audience preferences, cultural norms, and rhetorical situations, nor to respond to feedback, criticism, and dialogue. Therefore, human writers who can leverage their high verbal intelligence to produce more creative, engaging, and distinctive writing will still have a significant advantage over AI, especially in domains that require more personal, emotional, or artistic communication, such as fiction, poetry, memoir, humor, or criticism. However, human writers who rely on conventional, formulaic, or generic writing may face more competition and lower returns from AI, especially in domains that require more factual, analytical, or informative communication, such as news, reports, essays, or reviews. People whose comparative advantage is in writing should prepare for this scenario by developing and honing their unique voice.
We love watching the commenting computers tell us where the human is going wrong. There is a lesson in that!
We are not close to that in my view. Not close to ten percent even.
The one big thing I know is that I know many things.
And I am a bird.
Nope. That was easy!
Our market is large enough, and there are enough foreign sources of competition and innovation, that yes I think this will work out OK. It is just that we could do so, so much better.
I see fixing mental illness as the number one priority here...that would boost both wealth and wealth plus, though probably the latter by more.