Farting?
Tyler Cowen
Karma: 50
The short- and also medium-run impact of AI will be to dramatically improve workflows for the five (?) percent or so of those who will know how to work with it.
A long time before aggregate productivity measures as much higher! Like both computers and the internet.
The more important thing is that we now see that the key breakthroughs are possible.
Russia was authoritarian in earlier times when it was also more religious. (Plus I think that number under-measures current Russian religiosity.)
Maybe authoritarian family structure is one underlying reason?
Never have been ruled by the Roman Empire also seems important?
India is already trying a version of that with Hindu Nationalism, yes.
Well, it all needs more attention.
Science policy is one area that has gained in attention the most, but perhaps it is still the most underrated?
Or how about serious engagement with the histories of East Asia?
Ireland for that matter? Current Poland?
Fortunately, the Industrial Revolution is relatively well-studied, though those works should be much better know and taught more generally.
The skill of the operator will remain paramount, see my book Average is Over.
I don’t view LLMs as substitutes for human beings, not for most tasks. Think of them instead as servants you can embed in your work flows. Writers and public intellectuals who are good at that will do very very well.
Of course those skilled at that task are probably a very different set of people than those who have been succeeding to date.
STudying food markets shows that progress is possible!
It shows the importance of immigration.
The diversity of quarters from which innovation comes.
Not all sectors are like food markets, but it is one very good place to start. And food markets give you a very good chance to chat with very smart people who are not college-educated.
Every economist should write a biography or two! Biographies cast a pretty severe light on what you can and cannot explain. Most things you cannot explain and choice is so often idiosyncratic.
The Great Man Theory seems underrated to me. Take away Napoleon, Lenin, or Hitler, and a lot seems veyr different. So maybe we should call it “The Evil Man” theory...
The good individuals matter less, at least as individuals!?
See this column for my take: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-24/2020-in-review-maybe-it-wasn-t-quite-as-horrible-as-it-seemed?sref=htOHjx5Y
My prediction in 2011 was that the Great Stagnation would end within twenty years, so far to me that is looking correct.
There is so much joint production I am not sure we will get so far with this. Simply the level of wages may be a start, however.
I don’t see the import of AI models as stand-alone skills, rather being integrated into workflows. So I am not sure the predictions would mean that much. There are plenty of skills (memory!) where “computers,” broadly construed, are already much better than humans.
Can’t really do it! You have to hope for some crazy people with tenure bucking the system. There are always a few of those, but they will not dominate. But add to their ranks crazy untenured people who write on the internet, and then you have something real in terms of influence.
There are papers on this which I haven’t read, I would consult those most of all. India will spend a lot on A/C. Texas is doing pretty well, as is Phoenix, so I am not worried so much about heat per se.
New Jersey has more talent and human capital than before, but the Northeast is much less culturally central. I would still be long New Jersey, though, for the future.
The best for Visegrad 4, for human creativity, was late 19th century/early 20th century, up through the 1930s. That will never be reattained. As for living standards—now is the peak and it will get much better yet.
I don’t love Jane Eyre, so I have to go with Wuthering Heights.
On most important, the usual answer would be Jane Austen, but how about Mary Shelley instead? More prophetic. Virginia Woolf too, I prefer both over Austen.
Maybe important to play sports for 2⁄3 of kids? But heterogeneity reigns!
I think they are complements. The internet always can take credit for the AI models, if need be. I think they are both transformative in any case, though the AI models will take a long time to boost gdp in a measurable fashion. In the short run, AI models will make the most productive people, if they are willing to experiment with AI, much more productive.
Improving science policy? I wrote a bit more about this in another answer. Maybe Heidi Williams will lead the charge. I am optimistic.