Do the GPTs constitute >10% of the AI capabilities progress (set zero at just before AlexNet) necessary for automating most of the science R&D process?
Actual R&D involves so much interface with the real world, I fear that AIs will have a tough time there. So much of R&D is like “gardening.” AI will be a significant aide to us, but the humans will remain paramount in those endeavors. Important aides, but complements to us, not some means of replacing us. Thus it is hard to give a percentage.
Do the GPTs constitute >10% of the AI capabilities progress (set zero at just before AlexNet) necessary for automating most of the science R&D process?
Actual R&D involves so much interface with the real world, I fear that AIs will have a tough time there. So much of R&D is like “gardening.” AI will be a significant aide to us, but the humans will remain paramount in those endeavors. Important aides, but complements to us, not some means of replacing us. Thus it is hard to give a percentage.
We are not close to that in my view. Not close to ten percent even.