Founder, The Roots of Progress (rootsofprogress.org)
jasoncrawford
Karma: 498
Is growth linear, not exponential?
Aeon article on “Primitive communism”
Why “progress studies” is interdisciplinary
Thanks Adam! A few thoughts in response:
1. On comprehension vs. advocacy, I think there are actually two types of advocacy. One is more like “application” and is analogous to medicine or engineering: we learn something (comprehension) that can then be applied for practical results. In Cowen & Collison’s article, they give the example of teaching better management practices to companies.
The other type is advocating for progress itself: promoting the idea that progress is even desirable and possible. I don’t think this has an analog in biology/medicine, because health is not a very controversial goal. There is no “dehealth” movement advocating sickness; no one calls health an “addition” or a “fetish,” etc.
(The question of whether you can both “study” and “advocate” at the same time is interesting and important, and it would be good to take that up in a separate post/thread here.)
2. Related, re:
The Progress Studies movement might consider framing its work as a response to the growing extremism of the STS movement.
I think that’s right. Although I wouldn’t define PS primarily as a response to any other idea or movement. PS would be needed and would be essentially the same even if STS didn’t exist.
3. Re “big tent”, I generally agree, although I think this is a subtle issue.
I definitely want to avoid dogmatic party lines, or dogmatism of any form. (The question of epistemic standards for the progress movement is also worth a separate post and discussion.)
That said, I do think that there are certain basic premises that are needed to give this community/movement some coherence and identity. I’ve identified those as: progress as a historical fact; human well-being as the standard of value; and a belief in human agency. In other words: progress is real, desirable, and possible. (And even within those basic premises, there’s room for debate over exact definition, interpretation, and applications.)
If we agree on the goal, then there is a lot of room for debate about specific policies and approaches. The progress community spans a range from progressive to libertarian, and I’d love to see people debate their preferred systems in terms of what actually achieves progress.
I would go even a bit further and say that I would like this community, and especially this forum, to be welcoming of people who aren’t even sure that they’re on board with the basic premises, and don’t self-identify with the movement. No need to pledge allegiance or anything. If you can contribute to the discussion, then we’re glad to have you here.
All that said, I would emphasize that I do think the basic premises matter, including “hammering out all the detailed nuances.” I think those premises have powerful consequences for how we interpret “progress” and what conclusions we draw about it. So even while we leave them somewhat open, I think we should do so not on the idea that basic premises are irrelevant fluff, but rather on the idea that we’re still figuring out what they are, as part of an iterative epistemic process of improving our views.
Nuclear going mainstream? https://twitter.com/CBSMornings/status/1516036558876553222
Experts and environmentalists say the U.S. will need to turn to nuclear power, which creates no planet-warming emissions, to replace fossil fuels.
“Nuclear power will be a reliable, stable fuel source for many, many years to come,” says one power company official.
Why pessimism sounds smart
There are a number of books on the history of the idea of progress, most famously by J. B. Bury. I have only skimmed/sampled them, though.
The best thing I’ve read on this topic is from Joel Mokyr in The Atlantic: “Progress Isn’t Natural”
Strong agree. I called out “vision for the future” as one of four key areas that progress studies writers should focus on here: “What would a thriving progress movement look like?”
I would add another reason for futurism that’s maybe even more important: it can inspire and motivate scientists, inventors, and founders—exactly the people who will be actually making these breakthroughs. It can spotlight exciting opportunities and help direct their efforts. (Maybe this is just a part of your first reason.)
Because of all this, I think J. Storrs Hall did a great service with his book Where Is My Flying Car? It’s on my short list of essential progress books.
I think to avoid repeating past mistakes, it’s crucial to remember that (1) technology and industry are ultimately valuable only in the service of human well-being, and (2) in order to ensure this, we need more than just technology and industry: we need the recognition and protection of individual rights.
Tomas Puyeo on “Why Germany Won’t Keep Its Nuclear Plants Open”:
The document explaining Germany’s nuclear position reads as a long list of excuses of why it would be inconvenient to keep nuclear reactors open, forget about reopening old ones.
What is even more interesting is not what’s there, but what’s not there. This is not a cost-benefit analysis. It doesn’t explain the benefits of reopening the reactors, how much money would be saved, how much safer Germany would be, how much more it could defend its neighbors.
When you only pay attention to something’s costs, it means you simply don’t want to do it.
If you’re trying to promote progress and abundance, you need to figure out how. What’s the roadmap from here to utopia?
Sarah Constantin on her aims with her new blog: “In Search of Opportunity”
Hmm:
A 1965 Harris poll showed 57 percent of Americans believed money would be better spent on a less literal moonshot: new water desalination systems. A few years later, in 1967, only 43 percent of the public supported landing a man on the moon, according to another Harris poll. It was popularly referred to as a “moondoggle.”
From “Bernie Sanders Would Have Voted Against the Moon Landing”
The concluding session of The Story of Industrial Civilization
Voltaire on commerce and religious tolerance:
Go into the Royal Exchange in London, a building more respectable than most courts; there you will find deputies from every nation assembled simply to serve mankind. There, the Jew, the Mohammedan, and the Christian negotiate with one another as if they were all of the same religion, and the only heretics are those who declare bankruptcy; there the Presbyterian trusts the Anabaptist, the Anglican accepts the word of the Quaker. Leaving this peaceful and liberal assembly, some go to the synagogue, others go to drink; this one is baptized in a great font in the name of the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit; that one has his son circumcised while some Hebrew words that he does not understand are mumbled over him; still others go to their church with their hats on their heads to await the inspiration of God, and all are content.
Were there only one religion in England, despotism would be a threat; were there two, they would be at each other’s throats; but there are thirty, and they live happily and at peace with one another.
From Philosophical Letters: Or, Letters Regarding the English Nation
From Dima Shamoun:
I just wanted to bring to your attention this recent release by the Health Physics Society on the entire history of the Linear Non-Threshold model, in the form of 22 episodes interview with Ed Calabrese.
For context, see “Why has nuclear power been a flop?” and my interview with Dima on her podcast Flies in the Ointment.
When and how have we made progress against misinformation?
First thought: seems like the kind of thing you could use for vaccine development and manufacturing in a pandemic? (How does this relate to what the Gates Foundation did… didn’t they fund manufacturing facilities for several vaccines, even in advance of knowing which one would work?)
Another potential application: carbon capture systems?
New podcast from Stripe Press:
Introducing Beneath the Surface—a seven-part podcast series about infrastructure.
Join us on May 3rd for the first episode.
https://twitter.com/stripepress/status/1520055702655492098
Eren Bali:
I grew up in a small village in Turkey. Before commercial fertilizers became affordable enough, you would collect cow shit all year, let it dry out and use it as fertilizer. It was hard labor, didn’t work as well and smelled as you’d think it smells.
https://twitter.com/erenbali/status/1521136589451059200
This looks interesting: “Funding for long-term-oriented people and projects”
https://www.futurefundinglist.com