On the other hand, a lot of markets maintain a equilibrium due to their capture, so any hypothetical gain in competitive/selective pressure can have downstream externalities. For example, the competitive advantage in art, according to the consumer choices now, was more about the lower price than the prestige. Who knows what implication this has for “the creator economy”, and who knows how the larger advertisement sector handles this potential disintermediation. This may also by exacerbated by the macroeconomic pressure to favor bond yield over equities (though this isn’t my wheelhouse).
Generative AI is clearly not a mature market by any stretch of the imagination. One concrete point is the churn rate of Generative AI platforms. The more abstract point that mirrors this is the “there is no moat” memo. We’ve seen the “stablediffusion moment” for chat & text2image (which has progressed into free markets for LoRAs), but we arguably haven’t realized this for robotics transformers like RT-2-X.
another hypothetical in the air is what consumers do with the client-server business model when their content does not necessarily originate from those services anymore. again, way too early to tell when most browsers & operating systems are still trying to ship generative AI as a cloud-based feature (for now). Otherwise, there’s just dealing with the loud minority of “AI doom” which is “suppositionally valid conjecture that’s practically unsound”. but that’s my opinionated take informed by first principles like the Kerckhoff principle & the 90′s lore of PGP, so take this with a grain of cypherpunk salt.
Excellent analysis, good to see optimism about the future (the pessimist in me is saying but what about AI☹️).
AI is still economically-bound computation (e.g. https://twitter.com/clementdelangue/status/1711732659443863978) The smaller model(s) + deterministic glue + more expressive HITL paradigm is just going keep percolating for a while, clearly we haven’t hit the frontier with those resource constraints and data technique is the most competitive element respective to those constraints (e.g. https://huggingface.co/HuggingFaceH4/zephyr-7b-alpha ).
On the other hand, a lot of markets maintain a equilibrium due to their capture, so any hypothetical gain in competitive/selective pressure can have downstream externalities. For example, the competitive advantage in art, according to the consumer choices now, was more about the lower price than the prestige. Who knows what implication this has for “the creator economy”, and who knows how the larger advertisement sector handles this potential disintermediation. This may also by exacerbated by the macroeconomic pressure to favor bond yield over equities (though this isn’t my wheelhouse).
Generative AI is clearly not a mature market by any stretch of the imagination. One concrete point is the churn rate of Generative AI platforms. The more abstract point that mirrors this is the “there is no moat” memo. We’ve seen the “stablediffusion moment” for chat & text2image (which has progressed into free markets for LoRAs), but we arguably haven’t realized this for robotics transformers like RT-2-X.
one analysis that I find valuable is the “$200 billion question” (https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/follow-the-gpus-perspective/)
another hypothetical in the air is what consumers do with the client-server business model when their content does not necessarily originate from those services anymore. again, way too early to tell when most browsers & operating systems are still trying to ship generative AI as a cloud-based feature (for now).
Otherwise, there’s just dealing with the loud minority of “AI doom” which is “suppositionally valid conjecture that’s practically unsound”. but that’s my opinionated take informed by first principles like the Kerckhoff principle & the 90′s lore of PGP, so take this with a grain of cypherpunk salt.
I have yet to see a good case against AI doom.