I have seen this kind of analysis before (e.g., this ACX post). There is something to it, but I think in most contexts, the absolute/total “impact” of an idea (using your terminology here) is more important/relevant than the counterfactual/incremental “value.”
There are a few contexts in which the counterfactual/incremental analysis is what you want, but I’m not sure what you learn from that beyond “it’s more valuable to work in neglected areas, rather than crowded ones, all else being equal.” That is a true and important lesson, but not one for which we need to redefine how we measure value.
Re “inventions which were not actually made for some time after they were technically possible” (aka “ideas behind their time”), see some of my recent commentary on this.
I have seen this kind of analysis before (e.g., this ACX post). There is something to it, but I think in most contexts, the absolute/total “impact” of an idea (using your terminology here) is more important/relevant than the counterfactual/incremental “value.”
There are a few contexts in which the counterfactual/incremental analysis is what you want, but I’m not sure what you learn from that beyond “it’s more valuable to work in neglected areas, rather than crowded ones, all else being equal.” That is a true and important lesson, but not one for which we need to redefine how we measure value.
Re “inventions which were not actually made for some time after they were technically possible” (aka “ideas behind their time”), see some of my recent commentary on this.