This is fun to think about. Two thoughts popped up:
1. I wonder if it also changes researchers’ appetite for risk knowing they may have time to recover in the future if their riskier projects fail.
2. Perhaps there’s also a mechanism forcing science to be more robust/credible. If my career is now 100 years long rather than 30 years, there may be a longer-term penalty for engaging in shoddy science. (This probably sits under your long-term thinking bracket).
I think both points are very important. I also think they reduce the old guard risk. ,
Consider an example where a researcher is powerful in a paradigm that either is wrong or stagnant.
Currently, cognitive decline and a short horizon make it unattractive admit failure and start from scratch. Instead, you fight a rearguard action until retirement.
With longevity and 100 years to go, you would realize that defending the old paradigm is a losing battle, and you also have lots of time and cognitive ability to get back in learning mode and come back stronger.
This is fun to think about. Two thoughts popped up:
1. I wonder if it also changes researchers’ appetite for risk knowing they may have time to recover in the future if their riskier projects fail.
2. Perhaps there’s also a mechanism forcing science to be more robust/credible. If my career is now 100 years long rather than 30 years, there may be a longer-term penalty for engaging in shoddy science. (This probably sits under your long-term thinking bracket).
I think both points are very important. I also think they reduce the old guard risk. ,
Consider an example where a researcher is powerful in a paradigm that either is wrong or stagnant.
Currently, cognitive decline and a short horizon make it unattractive admit failure and start from scratch. Instead, you fight a rearguard action until retirement.
With longevity and 100 years to go, you would realize that defending the old paradigm is a losing battle, and you also have lots of time and cognitive ability to get back in learning mode and come back stronger.
Yes, incredibly interesting.
Also, good seeing you here—I’m a big fan of your work!