Our primitive monkey brains are good at over-estimating very unlikely risks.[2]
I think this is presupposing the question isn’t it.
If a risk is indeed very unlikely, then we will tend to overestimate it. (If the probability is 0 it’s impossible to underestimate)
But for risks that are actually quite likely, then we are more likely to underestimate them.
And of course, bias estimates cut both ways. “Our primitive monkey brains are good at ignoring and underestimating abstract and hard to understand risks”.
I think this is presupposing the question isn’t it.
If a risk is indeed very unlikely, then we will tend to overestimate it. (If the probability is 0 it’s impossible to underestimate)
But for risks that are actually quite likely, then we are more likely to underestimate them.
And of course, bias estimates cut both ways. “Our primitive monkey brains are good at ignoring and underestimating abstract and hard to understand risks”.