Without referring to other people’s views or research, do you have a personal intuitive point estimate or spread on when we will have AIs that can do all economically important tasks?
I dunno… years is too short and centuries maybe too long, so I guess I’d say decades? That is a very wide spread though.
And if you really mean all, I place non-zero probability on “never” or “not for a very long time.” After all, we don’t even do all economically important manual tasks using machines yet, and we’ve had powered machinery for 300 years.
Without referring to other people’s views or research, do you have a personal intuitive point estimate or spread on when we will have AIs that can do all economically important tasks?
I dunno… years is too short and centuries maybe too long, so I guess I’d say decades? That is a very wide spread though.
And if you really mean all, I place non-zero probability on “never” or “not for a very long time.” After all, we don’t even do all economically important manual tasks using machines yet, and we’ve had powered machinery for 300 years.