A Tesla Model 3 can beat a Porsche 911 from 0 to 60 miles per hour, but getting set up to charge it at home might take months and cost thousands of dollars depending on the home’s existing electrical setup and utility-side constraints.
The challenge: installation is proving to be a key bottleneck for deployment.
First, the pool of skilled electrical and HVAC1 labor is not growing fast enough to match the growing demand. Some forecast that achieving the goals laid out in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will require 2 million more workers focused on just clean energy deployment and building efficiency, while the industry struggles to add just a fraction of the 9 million jobs the IRA could create overall. To be more concrete, California has a stated goal of 6M heat pumps deployed by 2030. With just 1.5M deployed today, the incremental 4.5M heat pumps represent a big ramp for the ~35,000 HVAC workers in the state, causing delays and higher prices.
Source: Directional top-down estimate from the ‘Green Collar Workforce’ series here
Second, many households are finding the capacity of their existing service panel (where breakers are located and power is routed to individual circuits in a house) too small to support new heat pumps or EVs. Where a service panel upgrade is needed (e.g., for the ~30-35% of homes with panels 100 amps or smaller2), utility permitting and line-side upgrades can add significant time and cost to electrification efforts. In a 2022 study commissioned by PG&E and SDG&E in California, the upgrade process took up to 10 months and cost up to ~$30,000 in instances where significant line-side upgrades were needed.
Accelerating the deployment of these technologies in the face of these constraints will require avoiding and simplifying installation as much as possible, rather than just optimizing existing processes (e.g., through measures like SolarApp+).
Avoid
Avoiding installation entirely is the first line of defence, going a long way towards shifting these technologies to being bought, not sold. A few examples of this include:
Balcony solar—In many parts of Europe, it is legal (code-compliant) to purchase solar modules online and (with included micro-inverter) plug them directly into a home power outlet to help offset energy usage. This practice is booming in Germany in particular, with more than ~500,000 devices installed and registered with the government. At ~$0.50-1.00 per watt3 for some packages, this is very cost-competitive with more traditional installations, albeit limited to 800W of total output.
Unfortunately, this technology is not (currently) allowed by the US National Electrical Code4, which has no specific allowances for backfeeding power into the home through a normal outlet, though US wiring could theoretically support small inputs (<800W) like those seen in Germany.
Battery-backed home appliances: Devices with built-in batteries can charge at slower rates than their peak power usage, allowing existing 120V outlets to be used for high performance applications like induction stoves (which would traditionally require a 240 volt / 30 amp circuit).
Impulse Labs is the viral recent example, showing off on Twitter how their 10kW cooktops can boil water in less than a minute (and cook lotsofotherstuff) while relying on a normal 120V outlet. This magic is enabled by a built-in 3kWh battery, allowing for performance far exceeding what would otherwise be possible with the ~1.8kW that a 120V / 15A circuit could provide.
This battery further allows the homeowner to avoid using grid power during peak rate periods, while also providing resilience during blackouts (a common concern when electrifying key home appliances). Similar to balcony solar, reforms to the NEC clarifying outlet-level backfeeding requirements would unlock additional capability to support household loads through backfeeding.
This battery-based approach could be viable for other devices like electric water heaters, heat pumps, and dryers that cycle on / off or are otherwise used intermittently but at high rates and would traditionally require the installation of a 240V outlet to support their electrification / installation.
Simplify
Where complete avoidance of installation is impossible, there is still significant value in limiting and simplifying that installation effort. In particular, avoiding service panel upgrades and utility permitting / line-side upgrades can significantly reduce the cost of electrification for a household.
Energy management devices: Ultimately, some electrification will drive loads too large to avoid installation entirely (e.g., Level 2 EV chargers, larger capacity heat pumps). But, the NEC has a provision (section 750.30) wherein the load doesn’t count towards service panel sizing if it’s behind an appropriate energy management device. These devices come in a full spectrum of complexities, from a simple 240V splitter like that offered by NeoCharge through Stepwise’s EVtap that uses a current transformer to manage power on an individual home circuit to full ‘smart panel’ replacements like those from Span or Lunar Energy.
Each of these seeks to serve new large loads that come with home electrification without the need for expensive service panel upgrades. While most require some level of electrician labor to install, this is significantly reduced relative to the upgrades required for a larger panel.
Zero-export solar + storage: As adoption of residential solar increases, the backfeed of power onto the grid goes from a valuable service to a potential risk to grid stability5.
In some geographies like Hawaii and Australia, utilities have already moved to ‘zero-export’ regimes, where new residential systems can serve the load at a given home but not feed power back to the grid6. This approach should be adopted more broadly as an option to simplify permitting and installation of residential systems.
For many customers in places like California, reforms to net metering (NEM 3.0) have slashed payments for feeding power back to the grid. In many instances customers could be better served by a simpler permitting process and a zero-export / self-consumption approach to their system. But in practice this type of application can fall under a different–more expensive and more complex–application process designed for much larger systems (e.g., C&I microgrids like those developed by Scale Microgrids). Formalizing zero-export schemes for residential solar + storage systems could accelerate their adoption by trading shrinking export subsidies for faster deployment.
Rapidly deploying technologies like residential solar, EVs, heat pumps and other ‘distributed energy resources’ is a key part of achieving the clean energy transition. These technologies are also increasingly appealing on their own terms, beating traditional technologies like internal combustion engines and thermal power plants on performance and cost.
At the same time, many of the constraints on deploying these DERs exist for a reason. Electricians require training and apprenticeship to safely and effectively do their work. Upgrading the grid requires similarly skilled labor while also often requiring power outages. Permitting, however clunky, exists to manage the disruption that can come from construction and new development.
Developing products and systems that understand and work within these constraints, and respect the tradeoffs they represent, will be just as critical as efforts to alleviate the constraints themselves. Over the coming years, I expect to see more products and offerings that fit this pattern: avoiding and simplifying installation to avoid expensive labor, permitting, and delays, accelerating the energy transition in the process.
1 Heating, ventilation, and cooling (HVAC) technicians generally handle the installation of heat pumps and related systems.
2 Estimates vary somewhat, but recent research on this from EPRI (Fig. 4), Pecan Street, and UCLA are all roughly in line with each other.
3 Based on a quick search for 800W systems (1, 2, 3), which seem to be the max allowed by the regulations. Interestingly, there are kits available on Amazon in the US for ~$2.00-2.50 per watt, though this seems appropriately niche given the lack of code compliance.
4 This capability was not included in the first draft of the 2026 code either, though there remains time for revisions before the final rules are promulgated.
5 Simplistically, the power quality and protection schemes in place are generally not designed for power to be flowing back from the distribution circuits to substations. As individual circuits risk net generation, their incremental headroom for additional resi solar gets ‘used up’.
6 Interestingly, these are actually on the way out in Australia thanks to a centrally orchestrated ‘dynamic export’ system. It will be interesting to see if this path could be followed in the US as well.
Accelerate the energy transition by doing less
This is a linkpost for: https://cleanenergyreview.io/p/accelerate-the-energy-transition
A Tesla Model 3 can beat a Porsche 911 from 0 to 60 miles per hour, but getting set up to charge it at home might take months and cost thousands of dollars depending on the home’s existing electrical setup and utility-side constraints.
The challenge: installation is proving to be a key bottleneck for deployment.
First, the pool of skilled electrical and HVAC1 labor is not growing fast enough to match the growing demand. Some forecast that achieving the goals laid out in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will require 2 million more workers focused on just clean energy deployment and building efficiency, while the industry struggles to add just a fraction of the 9 million jobs the IRA could create overall. To be more concrete, California has a stated goal of 6M heat pumps deployed by 2030. With just 1.5M deployed today, the incremental 4.5M heat pumps represent a big ramp for the ~35,000 HVAC workers in the state, causing delays and higher prices.
Second, many households are finding the capacity of their existing service panel (where breakers are located and power is routed to individual circuits in a house) too small to support new heat pumps or EVs. Where a service panel upgrade is needed (e.g., for the ~30-35% of homes with panels 100 amps or smaller2), utility permitting and line-side upgrades can add significant time and cost to electrification efforts. In a 2022 study commissioned by PG&E and SDG&E in California, the upgrade process took up to 10 months and cost up to ~$30,000 in instances where significant line-side upgrades were needed.
Accelerating the deployment of these technologies in the face of these constraints will require avoiding and simplifying installation as much as possible, rather than just optimizing existing processes (e.g., through measures like SolarApp+).
Avoid
Avoiding installation entirely is the first line of defence, going a long way towards shifting these technologies to being bought, not sold. A few examples of this include:
Balcony solar—In many parts of Europe, it is legal (code-compliant) to purchase solar modules online and (with included micro-inverter) plug them directly into a home power outlet to help offset energy usage. This practice is booming in Germany in particular, with more than ~500,000 devices installed and registered with the government. At ~$0.50-1.00 per watt3 for some packages, this is very cost-competitive with more traditional installations, albeit limited to 800W of total output.
Unfortunately, this technology is not (currently) allowed by the US National Electrical Code4, which has no specific allowances for backfeeding power into the home through a normal outlet, though US wiring could theoretically support small inputs (<800W) like those seen in Germany.
Battery-backed home appliances: Devices with built-in batteries can charge at slower rates than their peak power usage, allowing existing 120V outlets to be used for high performance applications like induction stoves (which would traditionally require a 240 volt / 30 amp circuit).
Impulse Labs is the viral recent example, showing off on Twitter how their 10kW cooktops can boil water in less than a minute (and cook lots of other stuff) while relying on a normal 120V outlet. This magic is enabled by a built-in 3kWh battery, allowing for performance far exceeding what would otherwise be possible with the ~1.8kW that a 120V / 15A circuit could provide.
This battery further allows the homeowner to avoid using grid power during peak rate periods, while also providing resilience during blackouts (a common concern when electrifying key home appliances). Similar to balcony solar, reforms to the NEC clarifying outlet-level backfeeding requirements would unlock additional capability to support household loads through backfeeding.
This battery-based approach could be viable for other devices like electric water heaters, heat pumps, and dryers that cycle on / off or are otherwise used intermittently but at high rates and would traditionally require the installation of a 240V outlet to support their electrification / installation.
Simplify
Where complete avoidance of installation is impossible, there is still significant value in limiting and simplifying that installation effort. In particular, avoiding service panel upgrades and utility permitting / line-side upgrades can significantly reduce the cost of electrification for a household.
Energy management devices: Ultimately, some electrification will drive loads too large to avoid installation entirely (e.g., Level 2 EV chargers, larger capacity heat pumps). But, the NEC has a provision (section 750.30) wherein the load doesn’t count towards service panel sizing if it’s behind an appropriate energy management device. These devices come in a full spectrum of complexities, from a simple 240V splitter like that offered by NeoCharge through Stepwise’s EVtap that uses a current transformer to manage power on an individual home circuit to full ‘smart panel’ replacements like those from Span or Lunar Energy.
Each of these seeks to serve new large loads that come with home electrification without the need for expensive service panel upgrades. While most require some level of electrician labor to install, this is significantly reduced relative to the upgrades required for a larger panel.
Zero-export solar + storage: As adoption of residential solar increases, the backfeed of power onto the grid goes from a valuable service to a potential risk to grid stability5.
In some geographies like Hawaii and Australia, utilities have already moved to ‘zero-export’ regimes, where new residential systems can serve the load at a given home but not feed power back to the grid6. This approach should be adopted more broadly as an option to simplify permitting and installation of residential systems.
For many customers in places like California, reforms to net metering (NEM 3.0) have slashed payments for feeding power back to the grid. In many instances customers could be better served by a simpler permitting process and a zero-export / self-consumption approach to their system. But in practice this type of application can fall under a different–more expensive and more complex–application process designed for much larger systems (e.g., C&I microgrids like those developed by Scale Microgrids). Formalizing zero-export schemes for residential solar + storage systems could accelerate their adoption by trading shrinking export subsidies for faster deployment.
Rapidly deploying technologies like residential solar, EVs, heat pumps and other ‘distributed energy resources’ is a key part of achieving the clean energy transition. These technologies are also increasingly appealing on their own terms, beating traditional technologies like internal combustion engines and thermal power plants on performance and cost.
At the same time, many of the constraints on deploying these DERs exist for a reason. Electricians require training and apprenticeship to safely and effectively do their work. Upgrading the grid requires similarly skilled labor while also often requiring power outages. Permitting, however clunky, exists to manage the disruption that can come from construction and new development.
Developing products and systems that understand and work within these constraints, and respect the tradeoffs they represent, will be just as critical as efforts to alleviate the constraints themselves. Over the coming years, I expect to see more products and offerings that fit this pattern: avoiding and simplifying installation to avoid expensive labor, permitting, and delays, accelerating the energy transition in the process.
1 Heating, ventilation, and cooling (HVAC) technicians generally handle the installation of heat pumps and related systems.
2 Estimates vary somewhat, but recent research on this from EPRI (Fig. 4), Pecan Street, and UCLA are all roughly in line with each other.
3 Based on a quick search for 800W systems (1, 2, 3), which seem to be the max allowed by the regulations. Interestingly, there are kits available on Amazon in the US for ~$2.00-2.50 per watt, though this seems appropriately niche given the lack of code compliance.
4 This capability was not included in the first draft of the 2026 code either, though there remains time for revisions before the final rules are promulgated.
5 Simplistically, the power quality and protection schemes in place are generally not designed for power to be flowing back from the distribution circuits to substations. As individual circuits risk net generation, their incremental headroom for additional resi solar gets ‘used up’.
6 Interestingly, these are actually on the way out in Australia thanks to a centrally orchestrated ‘dynamic export’ system. It will be interesting to see if this path could be followed in the US as well.