There are two magic buttons, as follows, but you can only press one. Which would be better for progress and why?
We instantly get the ideal legal/regulatory/policy environment for progress, across the board (this button does not affect science or R&D)
We instantly get huge scientific/R&D breakthroughs: cure for cancer and aging, nanotech that works, fusion that works, benevolent AI (this button does not affect anything social, so all these things would face today’s regulatory environment)
Given the trade you’ve laid out, I’d take the scientific breakthroughs.
I think there is no agency to regulate nanotech, so it would be a “born free” industry, and we’d see a lot of rapid progress. Benevolent AI too. On the cancer and aging cures, yes, FDA is broken, but they’d get through approval in several years, and then we’d have them.
I do think, however, that the policy environment is worth many years of R&D breakthroughs, perhaps 10 or more. We’d get a revitalized transportation and energy industry, dirt cheap housing, better consumer health tech, and a faster rate of R&D development going forward. It wouldn’t take much unbalancing of the scales to make me flip the answer.
There are two magic buttons, as follows, but you can only press one. Which would be better for progress and why?
We instantly get the ideal legal/regulatory/policy environment for progress, across the board (this button does not affect science or R&D)
We instantly get huge scientific/R&D breakthroughs: cure for cancer and aging, nanotech that works, fusion that works, benevolent AI (this button does not affect anything social, so all these things would face today’s regulatory environment)
Given the trade you’ve laid out, I’d take the scientific breakthroughs.
I think there is no agency to regulate nanotech, so it would be a “born free” industry, and we’d see a lot of rapid progress. Benevolent AI too. On the cancer and aging cures, yes, FDA is broken, but they’d get through approval in several years, and then we’d have them.
I do think, however, that the policy environment is worth many years of R&D breakthroughs, perhaps 10 or more. We’d get a revitalized transportation and energy industry, dirt cheap housing, better consumer health tech, and a faster rate of R&D development going forward. It wouldn’t take much unbalancing of the scales to make me flip the answer.
Such a great question, excited to see Eli’s answer.