I agree that we could use more inspiration, futurism, etc.!
I disagree with your comments on business/economics (which maybe weren’t the real point though?) I don’t think anything about demand explains stagnation.
For travel in particular, it’s wrong to analyze it in terms of the trips people currently take becoming shorter. You should look at the trips people are not taking now because they’re too long, and consider how much more such trips would happen. E.g., think of SF <> Tokyo as a day or weekend trip.
People don’t clamor explicitly for new products and services, but when a business creates something that actually provides much more utility, they flock to it pretty quickly.
Thanks for the thoughts Jason — helped me think a bit more about the idea.
See my response to @daviskedrosky, but I totally agree that in general it is supply-driven. It’s more that I wanted to give more attention to the demand side because it’s not talked about as much. It is a chicken-and-egg problem in the end (and my post doesn’t really discuss the balance).
In regard to “People don’t clamor explicitly for new products and services” I don’t think this is totally true, and it is a mix. And I do thinkthat demand is much more important than many believe in driving what gets built (and regulated, etc).
Your comment did lead me to think more about what kinds of innovation are more demand or supply driven though, and given all of your research I’m curious to hear your thoughts on it.
It seems to me many more incremental innovations are demand driven, while breakthrough innovations are typically supply driven. The only breakthrough innovations I can think of that were more demand driven are the result of large-scale forcing functions, like war or pandemics that radically change the demand for what is wanted and the urgency it’s needed.
I agree that we could use more inspiration, futurism, etc.!
I disagree with your comments on business/economics (which maybe weren’t the real point though?) I don’t think anything about demand explains stagnation.
For travel in particular, it’s wrong to analyze it in terms of the trips people currently take becoming shorter. You should look at the trips people are not taking now because they’re too long, and consider how much more such trips would happen. E.g., think of SF <> Tokyo as a day or weekend trip.
People don’t clamor explicitly for new products and services, but when a business creates something that actually provides much more utility, they flock to it pretty quickly.
Thanks for the thoughts Jason — helped me think a bit more about the idea.
See my response to @daviskedrosky, but I totally agree that in general it is supply-driven. It’s more that I wanted to give more attention to the demand side because it’s not talked about as much. It is a chicken-and-egg problem in the end (and my post doesn’t really discuss the balance).
In regard to “People don’t clamor explicitly for new products and services” I don’t think this is totally true, and it is a mix. And I do think that demand is much more important than many believe in driving what gets built (and regulated, etc).
Your comment did lead me to think more about what kinds of innovation are more demand or supply driven though, and given all of your research I’m curious to hear your thoughts on it.
It seems to me many more incremental innovations are demand driven, while breakthrough innovations are typically supply driven. The only breakthrough innovations I can think of that were more demand driven are the result of large-scale forcing functions, like war or pandemics that radically change the demand for what is wanted and the urgency it’s needed.