I do not perceive we are within 10 years of that happening (defined as “instant ~free money movement between banked people in US, JP, Australia, UK, Canada, and all present members of EU”) and my estimate is increasing over time rather than decreasing, which is counterintuitive.
The reason here is that the first companies to do it would necessarily be tech companies with global reach, and not the traditionally-understood financial sector. There are many governments which, for reasons which sound excellent to them, would prefer a) clipping the wings of large tech companies doing business globally and b) increasing the height of the firewall between BigTech and the financial system.
I also think the salience of this particular measure is lower for institutions than it is for individual humans who are routinely exposed to exactly this need, because the types of life situations which expose you to exactly this need are anticorrelated with having power over institutions.
I do not perceive we are within 10 years of that happening (defined as “instant ~free money movement between banked people in US, JP, Australia, UK, Canada, and all present members of EU”) and my estimate is increasing over time rather than decreasing, which is counterintuitive.
The reason here is that the first companies to do it would necessarily be tech companies with global reach, and not the traditionally-understood financial sector. There are many governments which, for reasons which sound excellent to them, would prefer a) clipping the wings of large tech companies doing business globally and b) increasing the height of the firewall between BigTech and the financial system.
I also think the salience of this particular measure is lower for institutions than it is for individual humans who are routinely exposed to exactly this need, because the types of life situations which expose you to exactly this need are anticorrelated with having power over institutions.