I think history is the empirical foundation—where we get the case studies and the data from. That’s why, when I wanted to understand progress, I started by studying how it has actually happened, and indeed before I even asked “how” I just tried to figure out what happened.
Quantifying is good if/when you can do it appropriately. But make sure the thing you are measuring can actually reasonably represent the concept you are trying to study.
In general, go deep on whatever you’re studying and really get into the details. Your ratio of case studies to grand theories should be like 3–5 to 1.
On understanding vs. rhetoric:
There are both factual questions and ideological ones (or perhaps a spectrum). The factual questions include: how does progress happen, what are the mechanisms and causes, how can we measure it? The ideological questions include: is progress actually good, and can humanity have any agency over progress in the future?
Both are necessary and important, and I think the answers reinforce each other. The motivation for studying the factual questions is the conviction that progress is good and we can make more of it if we try. Conversely, when you honestly study the history of progress I think you can’t help but conclude that it has been very good for humanity and that its legacy is worth defending.
However, there is a trap here: promoting any ideology can put you in “soldier mindset.” Rather than honestly consider counterarguments, you can start to shut your ears, dig in your heels, and fight.
So, I think we should hold ourselves to the highest epistemic standards. Keep an open mind, listen to criticism, steelman your opponents. Don’t let progress studies turn into a dogma.
Not a fully-worked-out model, but here are some thoughts.
On methods:
Progress studies is an integration of history, philosophy, and economics (and maybe other fields, but those are the big ones).
I think history is the empirical foundation—where we get the case studies and the data from. That’s why, when I wanted to understand progress, I started by studying how it has actually happened, and indeed before I even asked “how” I just tried to figure out what happened.
Quantifying is good if/when you can do it appropriately. But make sure the thing you are measuring can actually reasonably represent the concept you are trying to study.
In general, go deep on whatever you’re studying and really get into the details. Your ratio of case studies to grand theories should be like 3–5 to 1.
On understanding vs. rhetoric:
There are both factual questions and ideological ones (or perhaps a spectrum). The factual questions include: how does progress happen, what are the mechanisms and causes, how can we measure it? The ideological questions include: is progress actually good, and can humanity have any agency over progress in the future?
Both are necessary and important, and I think the answers reinforce each other. The motivation for studying the factual questions is the conviction that progress is good and we can make more of it if we try. Conversely, when you honestly study the history of progress I think you can’t help but conclude that it has been very good for humanity and that its legacy is worth defending.
However, there is a trap here: promoting any ideology can put you in “soldier mindset.” Rather than honestly consider counterarguments, you can start to shut your ears, dig in your heels, and fight.
So, I think we should hold ourselves to the highest epistemic standards. Keep an open mind, listen to criticism, steelman your opponents. Don’t let progress studies turn into a dogma.