“But if progress is a primarily matter of agency, then whether it continues is up to us.”
It isn’t so easy. The problem is it is not up to individual agency, but the cumulative dynamic equilibrium of 8 billion people along with a healthy dose of luck and contingency. I strongly agree that we saw unprecedented amounts of progress over the past two centuries, but there is no guarantee it will continue.
That said, there are things we can do to increase the likelihood of progress. These include better understanding how progress works, and by spreading out our bets so that all our eggs aren’t in one or two baskets.
Chris, you seem to be reducing “progress” down to “technology”. This is exactly the type of thing progress studies needs to clarify. As someone who has spent half his life studying progress, my two cents on the issue is that it is helpful to view two distinct types of progress.
The first is what I call type 1 progress or progress in capability, knowledge or technology. This is nukes! Progress in technology and capability are fairly commonplace in history and even evolution.
The second is what I call type 2 progress, or progress in outcome or welfare. This is the hard one, and is extremely rare on a population level. The first and only known example of type 2 progress in the observable universe has been with humanity over the past 250 years or so.
Technology and science certainly play a crucial role in type 2 progress. But they are in no way sufficient.