ErikSchmidt

Karma: 22

ErikSchmidt 2 Dec 2022 15:07 UTC
5 points
on: Introductions thread (please introduce yourself)
Hey folks, I’m Erik. I heard about Progress Studies through an interest in economic history. I’ve always been very interested in the Industrial Revolution, why development occurs or why it doesn’t, and what we could do to accelerate the rate of technological progress. Progress Studies appealed to me because it’s a group of people very interested in those same questions through a modern lens—what works and what doesn’t to increase industrial and technological advancement in the modern day?
As some might guess from my earlier comment, my background is in economics. My day job is in business intelligence, I also have a startup project related to zoning/real estate I’m working on the side. I’m based out of the Philly area, I encourage all other Philly area folks to join the community group! Once we have a few people, let’s find an evening we can do a happy hour or something. Looking forward to connecting with different people!

ErikSchmidt 14 Dec 2022 0:07 UTC
2 points
in reply to: ryan_b’s comment on: Peter Thiel’s Pessimism Is (Largely) Mistaken
I don’t think it makes sense to compare America’s growth vs China or India’s growth over this period.
Yes, the countries were adopting similar technologies, but when America was adopting them, they were adopting those technologies at the technological frontier. When China and India were adopting them, they were not. It’s easier to grow by adopting already invented technologies than by inventing new ones. This is essentially the logic behind Solow-Swan convergence between rich and poor countries, which as an economic model has held up pretty well to what we observe in the real world.

As advocates of progress studies, we should be looking to see if it is possible to accelerate the rate of frontier growth. There are good reasons to think it might be. As others mentioned, J. Storrs Hall lays out some technologies that were not adopted for various reasons. AI could greatly accelerate technological and economic development. But also, we’ve also observed upshifts in economic growth in the past. Post-Industrial revolution, the economic growth rate, at the frontier and per capita, was about 1% a year, then about 1.5% a year after 1880, and about 2.5% a year after 1930 (I think—my memory is a little fuzzy on the exact numbers here). Thomas Philippon’s paper (summarized by the author in Tweet form here) offers some interesting insights into why this might be. We’ve seen the story of accelerating frontier growth before—the question is why haven’t seen it again in the past 50 years.

ErikSchmidt 20 Dec 2022 15:15 UTC
2 points
on: The Enemy’s Gate is Down: the State of NYC Housing Abundance
Great post. Seems like things in New York are turning in the right direction, and I’m impressed by your optimism. Hochul quoting Hseih and Moretti is pretty great!

Do you have any recommendations for low investment, high impact ways of reducing NIMBY power that many people might not be aware of? Either in New York, or generally in American cities. In my experience with YIMBY groups, it’s difficult to get more than a a few people to show up for an event. If those people don’t feel like they’re accomplishing much, they tend to get bored and do something else—reducing the chance they show up for the next one. Our housing issues in Philly (where I’m located) are not so bad yet that people need to get involved, so there’s much more apathy than in high-cost places like NYC or SF. But if there’s something impactful that we can do with a just few people then I want to help to organize it!

ErikSchmidt 22 Dec 2022 17:47 UTC
2 points
on: The Foundational Tech Manifesto: What it will take to break through to America 2.0
Hi Gary, what’s your relationship to the “Foundational Tech Ecosystem”? I have a startup project that seems like it would fit into this bucket (making land use codes/zoning easier to navigate for developers & RE professionals) and would be interested in connecting with others in this ecosystem. Thanks!

ErikSchmidt 24 Jan 2023 16:45 UTC
2 points
in reply to: Max Olson’s comment on: Progress studies as an (incomplete) “idea machine”
“Would want to keep any agenda specific enough to drive outcomes, but not too specific as to turn people off from petty disagreements.”

I think unfortunately, this is the equivalent of eating your cake and having it too. Progress studies, if it’s actionable, largely is going to impact into the political world (because we want to do xyz things, which government has some presence in, to accelerate the pace of progress), so disagreement is going to exist.

For instance, you mention regulations that “if removed or revisited” would increase progress. Two areas that come to mind for me are housing construction and nuclear regulation—but these are contentious, political topics. If we actually want to achieve real-world things here, I think specificity is unfortunately required.

ErikSchmidt 24 Jan 2023 17:56 UTC
2 points
on: Revving up the Progress Studies Idea Machine
I think to get to the “agenda” stage of the idea machine, a key is making sure that we’re acting in the real world. We can wish upon every star that zoning laws were reformed to make it easier to build housing, or that ALARA was repealed and more sensible nuclear regulation put in its place, but those items might not be the best fits for the agenda if we’re not able to realistically achieve them. They’re hard political problems to solve that will require a lot of resources, political savvy, and likely a large coalition! And others (such as YIMBY, for housing) are likely better equipped to lead the change on them.

I think our asset, or our “brand”, is that we’re a group of people that really like technological & economic progress, and we’re interested in why it happened, how it can be replicated, and what we could do to accelerate it. That’s the kind of people that this group is going to attract. So what can we do to help these people push for a progress agenda?
I really like the idea of a career guide. That’s something actionable that we can achieve. I guess I’m biased because I’m hosting the Philly meetup tomorrow, but I also think doing those kinds of networking events are valuable ways to grow the “Progress Studies” offering and see who is invested enough in it to get it into the real world. Who shows up to these sorts of things, what they’re interested in doing, etc. informs what might be possible agenda wise—in addition to everybody present making connections that could help for scientific, entrepreneurial, or career opportunities.

I also like this forum as a way for generating ideas, exploring possibilities, and learning new things. I agree with you and Jason there as well. One of these days I’m going to do a post on Precisionism, but I haven’t made it to the Demuth museum out in Lancaster yet and want to visit before I do.

I think another value we could offer would be if we wanted to organize a bookshare of some kind. I find that the local library doesn’t have a great selection of economic history or technical books, so if that’s something that we could organize, I think people might find it valuable. I often see a book mentioned by Jason or another columnist/blogger and will buy it to read it, but then I’d be happy to loan that book out to people once I finish it. On the borrowing side, I recently had to do an interlibrary loan from Tennessee to borrow a copy of a planning standards guide I needed for a project. There’s probably other directions we could take this concept for having a library or directory of resources as well. I know some groups do things with tool shares, and it might be nice to have a “who’s who in progress studies directory” for connecting people with each other as well?

ErikSchmidt 24 Jan 2023 21:21 UTC
2 points
on: Philly Progress Studies—Happy Hour
We’re set for tomorrow—table has been reserved

ErikSchmidt 25 Jan 2023 22:09 UTC
1 point
in reply to: ErikSchmidt’s comment on: Philly Progress Studies—Happy Hour
Just arrived! We have a table in the way back but since it’s restaurant week (which I did not realize) we may move to the bar, since they’re not doing happy hour at tables.

ErikSchmidt 22 Feb 2023 19:42 UTC
1 point
in reply to: Heike Larson’s comment on: Tell Good Stories
The inventor of the cell phone was inspired by the TOS communicator. There’s a lot of examples of this in engineering, I think.
I think you hit the mark with a lot of us having an underlying belief in progress independent of progress studies, and that a lot of that excitement/belief was inspired by media or culture. When I worked in sales, one of the team mottos we had was that people make decisions with emotions first, and then rationalize them later. Regardless of whether that’s how people “should” make decisions, I think it’s reasonably accurate. Creating art and media that celebrates progress, and having audiences have an emotional reaction to that media, is a great first step in getting more people invested in creating real-world progress. Disney and the other World’s Fair promoters certainly understood this, and on some level, I think everybody who pines for a Mid-Century World’s Fair does too.

Adam Ozimek had a twitter thread about a year ago where people pitched ideas for “progress studies” television shows—I wonder if anything happened to that. I stand by my pitch for a campy, positive, and fun 1632 mini-series.

ErikSchmidt 7 Mar 2023 19:16 UTC
1 point
on: A 21st Century Progress Myth
This may be a faux pass of the community rules about disagreement, but I don’t think you’ve created anything interesting here. Your “new movement” comes across a lot more like a cult than a concrete way to find meaning.
You describe a crisis of modernity in very vague terms in this piece. You point to things that are bad, gesture that our emotions might not be positive, and suggest that we need to develop a new way of living and finding meaning. To find meaning, you recommend watching a video you made.

This is generally how your video comes across too. You describe the “void” which is a shorthand term for anxieties, concerns, and nervousness about the future, and then say it’s solved by “the light in the void” which is further explained over the next 20 minutes to be, more or less, the meaning of life. You provide a few exercises about how to find this meaning for yourself, but the exercises tend to focus more on making the viewer feel a certain way rather than clear exercises that the viewer can build upon or share with others. It is a vibes-based way of thinking, not a structured one. Furthermore, it is not clear why a new movement is needed for people to find this meaning, rather than, say, to read a self-help book. (For a book that actually helps you to find meaning in your work/life, I recommend “What Color is Your Parachute” personally. It has been in print for 50 years)
To learn more about your movement/idea, you provide a link to your website. This website has links to two youtube videos (including the one discussed earlier) and another which is an hour and thirty minutes. I couldn’t/didn’t get through that one. The website touts the variety of people in the movement (Successful hedge fund managers! Interesting and cool anarchists!), but is light on how the system actually works. The only other thing on the website are two donation buttons, one for a $200 donation and and one for a $2,000 donation to the organization that you’ve started.

I am not going to blatantly assume bad faith here, but if you do not intend for this to be a cult, then you need to make your pitch significantly more clear and cut to the chase of what you’re trying to say.

ErikSchmidt 8 Mar 2023 18:47 UTC
1 point
in reply to: elliehain’s comment on: A 21st Century Progress Myth
I think I’m probably just not the target audience for your project, so I didn’t “get it”. I apologize for calling your stuff a cult and interpreting it through that lens.

A lot of what I was saying was an attempt to boil down your points to get to the meat of what the project is trying to say, but perhaps that kinda defeats the purpose of the artistic aspect of it. While I could argue about the numbered responses, or give suggestions on how to streamline the ideas you’re proposing, if the point is in large part artistic I see how that’s barking up the wrong tree.

While I don’t think this is for me, I apologize again for my critical tone and for calling it a cult. Best of luck.

ErikSchmidt 20 Apr 2023 13:31 UTC
1 point
on: How can economic growth reduce carbon emissions?
Yes. I recommend this article which has some helpful data pulled from the World Bank and Our World in Data, and explains the trends.
https://www.ft.com/content/967e1d77-8d3c-4256-9339-6ea7025cd5d3
But to summarize, as economic development advances, more people can spend more time inventing cleaner and better ways to do things, and industrial and economic development makes clean energy cheaper to deploy.

ErikSchmidt 27 Apr 2023 16:10 UTC
2 points
on: Quote quiz: “drifting into dependence”
My first instinct is Frank Herbert. But that seems too obvious, and your note that you brought it up to date makes me think it might be earlier.

ErikSchmidt 23 Aug 2023 14:01 UTC
2 points
on: Progress toward what? Understanding normative values in Progres Studies
“My theoretical challenge is: Progress Studies ought to be able to explain why two communities can view progress differently, and do so in its own terms; that is, in a theory that adequately defines what progress is...”
These are interesting questions, but, in my opinion, on the periphery of what “Progress Studies” is. Progress Studies generally pre-supposes that industrial, scientific, and economic development are good things. Most discussion seems to focus on better understanding how and why these things come about. At least, that’s what attracted me to this forum—somewhere where people nerd out over why the steam engine was developed where and when it was, how we can accelerate the pace of technological development, and how we can achieve more of these “good” things in the future by studying the past.
To determine whether or not this should be considered progress is, in my view, more likely to be satisfyingly answered by the field of Philosophy. There are centuries of writing that will delve far deeper into this, and have far more satisfying answers, than what’s generally discussed here—and the general supposition that, say, the Apollo mission or mRNA vaccines were capital-P Progress.
“I have reason to believe there is contestation here. From my highly informal sample of well-educated people in the Bay Area, for some, space colonies seem to represent progress; for others, an inhabitable and less technological earth seem to represent progress. These two, highly local cultural communities have different views of what progress is. My theoretical challenge is: Progress Studies ought to be able to explain why two communities can view progress differently, and do so in its own terms; that is, in a theory that adequately defines what progress is.”
I think this is actually a good example of the point I’m trying to make. The Philosopher would study both arguments and try to understand what each would say about the Good, and make a determination about what this says about the human condition or what progress should be. Your median Progress Studies enthusiast likely starts off pretty firmly on team Space Colony—and, if they’re being honest, is mostly interested in this question as a means for understanding how we could encourage more of team degrowth to switch sides.
To be clear, I don’t mean this in a negative sense toward either Progress Studies or Philosophy. Both questions are interesting and worthy of discussion. Seeking knowledge and understanding is an inherent good! But it’s also nice to have a space to talk about steam engines or designing effective industrial policy, without getting into the Philosophical weeds each time.

ErikSchmidt 4 Oct 2023 16:57 UTC
1 point
on: Elle Griffin’s Shortform
“Land value taxes are generally favored by economists as they do not cause economic inefficiency, and reduce inequality.^[2] A land value tax is a progressive tax, in that the tax burden falls on land owners, because land ownership is correlated with wealth and income.^[3]^[4] The land value tax has been referred to as “the perfect tax” and the economic efficiency of a land value tax has been accepted since the eighteenth century.^[1]^[5]^[6] Economists since Adam Smith and David Ricardo have advocated this tax because it does not hurt economic activity, and encourages development without subsidies.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax
Despite this rather glowing summary, and support by economists from Milton Friedman to Paul Krugman, land taxes are rare. The Economist explains:
“The bigger barrier is political. LVTs would impose concentrated costs on landowners [a politically powerful constituency], who face a new tax bill and reduced sale price. The benefit, by contrast, is spread equally over today’s population and future generations. The problem is unlikely to be overcome. Economists will continue to advocate LVTs, and politicians will continue to ignore them.”

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2014/11/10/why-land-value-taxes-are-so-popular-yet-so-rare
Some jurisdictions have managed to implement land value taxes. Denmark and Estonia have a form of the tax, and a handful of municipalities in Pennsylvania (Allentown, Harrisburg, Altoona from 2009-2018ish and Pittsburgh from 1911-2000) have experimented with it or its cousin split-rate taxation. Split-rate taxation taxes both land and structures like a traditional property tax, though it taxes land at a higher rate (often 5:1) than structures.